Temporal trends in leptospirosis incidence and association with climatic and environmental factors in the state of Santa Catarina, Brazil. / Tendência temporal da leptospirose e sua associação com variáveis climáticas e ambientais em Santa Catarina, Brasil.

Leptospirosis is a zoonosis with epidemic potential, especially after heavy rainfall causing river, urban and flash floods. Certain features of Santa Catarina's coastal region influence these processes. Using negative binomial regression, we investigated trends in the incidence of leptospirosis in the six municipalities with the highest epidemic peaks between 2000 and 2015 and the climatic and environmental variables associated with the occurrence of the disease. Incidence was highest in 2008 and 2011, and peaks occurred in the same month or month after disasters. Incidence showed a strong seasonal trend, being higher in summer months. There was a decrease trend in incidence across the six municipalities (3.21% per year). The climatic and environmental factors that showed the strongest associations were number of rainy days, maximum temperature, presence of flash floods, and river flooding. The impact of these variables varied across the municipalities. Significant interactions were found, indicating that the effect of river flooding on incidence is not the same across all municipalities and differences in incidence between municipalities depend on the occurrence of river flooding.

A leptospirose é uma zoonose que apresenta potencial epidêmico, principalmente após fortes chuvas que acarretam inundações, alagamentos e enxurradas. Algumas características da região costeira de Santa Catarina, localizada no Sul do Brasil, influenciam nesses processos. Portanto, a partir do estudo da leptospirose nos seis municípios do estado com as maiores incidências e picos epidêmicos de 2000 a 2015, buscou-se conhecer a tendência dessa doença e as variáveis climáticas e ambientais associadas à sua ocorrência, ajustando dois modelos com resposta binomial negativa. As maiores incidências foram encontradas em 2008 e 2011, com picos no mesmo mês ou no posterior aos eventos de desastres. A incidência apresentou forte comportamento sazonal, sendo maior nos meses do verão. Observou-se tendência de queda na incidência dos municípios estudados, estimada em 3,21% ao ano. Os fatores climáticos e ambientais mais fortemente associados foram o número de dias de chuva, a temperatura máxima e a presença de enxurrada e de inundação, com diferentes impactos entre os municípios. Houve interações significativas, indicando que o efeito de inundações na incidência não é o mesmo em todos os municípios e que as diferenças nas incidências entre os municípios dependem da ocorrência ou não de inundações.

Tendência temporal da leptospirose e sua associação com variáveis climáticas e ambientais em Santa Catarina, Brasil / Temporal trends in leptospirosis incidence and association with climatic and environmental factors in the state of Santa Catarina, Brazil

Resumo A leptospirose é uma zoonose que apresenta potencial epidêmico, principalmente após fortes chuvas que acarretam inundações, alagamentos e enxurradas. Algumas características da região costeira de Santa Catarina, localizada no Sul do Brasil, influenciam nesses processos. Portanto, a partir do estudo da leptospirose nos seis municípios do estado com as maiores incidências e picos epidêmicos de 2000 a 2015, buscou-se conhecer a tendência dessa doença e as variáveis climáticas e ambientais associadas à sua ocorrência, ajustando dois modelos com resposta binomial negativa. As maiores incidências foram encontradas em 2008 e 2011, com picos no mesmo mês ou no posterior aos eventos de desastres. A incidência apresentou forte comportamento sazonal, sendo maior nos meses do verão. Observou-se tendência de queda na incidência dos municípios estudados, estimada em 3,21% ao ano. Os fatores climáticos e ambientais mais fortemente associados foram o número de dias de chuva, a temperatura máxima e a presença de enxurrada e de inundação, com diferentes impactos entre os municípios. Houve interações significativas, indicando que o efeito de inundações na incidência não é o mesmo em todos os municípios e que as diferenças nas incidências entre os municípios dependem da ocorrência ou não de inundações.

Abstract Leptospirosis is a zoonosis with epidemic potential, especially after heavy rainfall causing river, urban and flash floods. Certain features of Santa Catarina's coastal region influence these processes. Using negative binomial regression, we investigated trends in the incidence of leptospirosis in the six municipalities with the highest epidemic peaks between 2000 and 2015 and the climatic and environmental variables associated with the occurrence of the disease. Incidence was highest in 2008 and 2011, and peaks occurred in the same month or month after disasters. Incidence showed a strong seasonal trend, being higher in summer months. There was a decrease trend in incidence across the six municipalities (3.21% per year). The climatic and environmental factors that showed the strongest associations were number of rainy days, maximum temperature, presence of flash floods, and river flooding. The impact of these variables varied across the municipalities. Significant interactions were found, indicating that the effect of river flooding on incidence is not the same across all municipalities and differences in incidence between municipalities depend on the occurrence of river flooding.

Effects of age, period, and birth cohort on homicide mortality in the city of São Paulo, Brazil, from 1996 to 2015.

Although São Paulo is the most populous city in Brazil - one of the world's most violent countries - a significant reduction in its homicide mortality rate (HMR) has been detected. This study aims to estimate the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on the trend of homicide mortality according to sex in the city of São Paulo, from 1996 to 2015. An ecological study was undertaken with data on deaths by homicide for both sexes, in all age brackets, in the city of São Paulo. Poisson models were adjusted for each sex to estimate the age-period-cohort effects. In total, 61,833 deaths by homicide were recorded among males and 5,109 among females. Regardless of the period, the highest HMR occurred in the 20-24 age bracket. Higher HMRs were found in those born in the 1970s and 1980s. The complete model, with age-period-cohort effects, were the best fit to the data. The risk of death by homicide declined over the periods, with lower intensity in the final five years (2011-2015), for both males (RR = 0.48; 95%CI: 0.46; 0.49) and females (RR = 0.52; 95%CI: 0.47; 0.57). A reduction was found in the risk of homicide, regardless of the sex or age bracket, and also in recent cohorts. However, the intensity of such reductions has been decreasing over time, which suggests that the public policies adopted have limited potential to maintain these achievements.

Effects of age, period, and birth cohort on homicide mortality in the city of São Paulo, Brazil, from 1996 to 2015 / Efeitos de idade, período e coorte de nascimentos sobre mortalidade por homicídio na cidade de São Paulo, Brasil, entre 1996 e 2015 / Efectos de la edad, período, y cohorte de nacimiento en la mortalidad por homicidio, en la ciudad de Sao Paulo, Brasil, de 1996 a 2015

Abstract: Although São Paulo is the most populous city in Brazil - one of the world's most violent countries - a significant reduction in its homicide mortality rate (HMR) has been detected. This study aims to estimate the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on the trend of homicide mortality according to sex in the city of São Paulo, from 1996 to 2015. An ecological study was undertaken with data on deaths by homicide for both sexes, in all age brackets, in the city of São Paulo. Poisson models were adjusted for each sex to estimate the age-period-cohort effects. In total, 61,833 deaths by homicide were recorded among males and 5,109 among females. Regardless of the period, the highest HMR occurred in the 20-24 age bracket. Higher HMRs were found in those born in the 1970s and 1980s. The complete model, with age-period-cohort effects, were the best fit to the data. The risk of death by homicide declined over the periods, with lower intensity in the final five years (2011-2015), for both males (RR = 0.48; 95%CI: 0.46; 0.49) and females (RR = 0.52; 95%CI: 0.47; 0.57). A reduction was found in the risk of homicide, regardless of the sex or age bracket, and also in recent cohorts. However, the intensity of such reductions has been decreasing over time, which suggests that the public policies adopted have limited potential to maintain these achievements.

Resumo: Embora São Paulo seja a cidade mais populosa do Brasil, que é um dos países mais violentos do mundo, o município vem apresentando uma redução significativa na taxa de mortalidade por homicídio (TMH). O estudo buscou estimar os efeitos de idade, período e coorte de nascimentos na tendência da mortalidade por homicídio de acordo com sexo na cidade de São Paulo, entre 1996 e 2015. Foi realizado um estudo ecológico com dados sobre óbitos por homicídio em ambos os sexos, em todas as faixas etárias, no local e período mencionados acima. Foram ajustados modelos de Poisson para cada sexo, para estimar os efeitos de idade-período-coorte. Foram registrados 61.833 óbitos por homicídio em homens e 5.109 em mulheres. Independentemente do período, a TMH mais alta ocorreu na faixa etária de 20-24 anos. As TMH mais altas foram observadas em indivíduos que nasceram nas décadas de 1970 e 1980. O melhor ajuste para os dados foi como o modelo completo, com os efeitos de idade-período-coorte. O risco e óbitos por homicídio diminuiu ao longo dos anos, com a menor intensidade nos últimos cinco anos (2011-2015), tanto em homens (RR = 0,48; IC95%: 0,46; 0,49) quanto em mulheres (RR = 0,52; IC95%: 0,47; 0,57). Foi observada uma redução no risco de homicídio, independente de sexo ou faixa etária, como também, nas coortes mais recentes. Entretanto, a intensidade dessas reduções tem diminuído ao longo do tempo, sugerindo que as políticas públicas adotadas têm potencial limitado para manter os avanços alcançados.

Resumen: A pesar de que São Paulo es la cuidad más poblada en Brasil, uno de los países más violentos del mundo, ha estado mostrando una significativa reducción en su tasa de mortalidad por homicidios (TMH). Este estudio se propone estimar los efectos de la edad, período, y cohorte de nacimiento sobre la tendencia de la mortalidad por homicidio, según sexo, en la ciudad de Sao Paulo, de 1996 a 2015. Se realizó un estudio ecológico con datos sobre las muertes por homicidio en ambos sexos, en todos los grupos de edad, en el lugar y período mencionado previamente. Con el fin de estimar los efectos de la edad-período-cohorte, se ajustaron modelos Poisson para ambos sexos. Se registraron un total de 61.833 muertes por homicidio entre hombres y 5.109 entre mujeres. Independientemente del período, la TMH más alta se produjo en la franja de edad 20-24. Unas TMH más altas se observaron en quienes habían nacido en los 1970 y los 1980. El modelo completo, con los efectos edad-período-cohorte, fue la mejor manera de ajustar los datos. El riesgo de muerte por homicidio se redujo a lo largo de los períodos, con una intensidad más baja en los últimos cinco años (2011-2015), para tanto hombres (RR = 0,48; IC95%: 0,46; 0,49), como mujeres (RR = 0,52; IC95%: 0,47; 0,57). Se observó una reducción en el riesgo de homicidio, independientemente del sexo o franja de edad, así como en las cohortes recientes. No obstante, la intensidad de tales reducciones ha estado decreciendo a lo largo del tiempo, lo que sugiere que las políticas públicas adoptadas tienen un potencial limitado para mantener estos logros.

[Time trend in hospitalizations from motor vehicle accidents in the city of São Paulo, Brazil, 2000-2019]. / Tendência temporal das internações por acidentes de trânsito na cidade de São Paulo, Brasil, 2000-2019.

This study assessed the hospitalization rates from motor vehicle accidents in the Brazilian Unified National Health System (SUS) in residents of the city of São Paulo, Brazil, from 2000 to 2019, according to sex, age bracket, and means of transportation (pedestrians, cyclists, motorcyclists, and motor vehicle occupants). A segmented regression model with negative binomial response was adjusted with inflection points to accommodate possible changes in trends. 189,765 hospitalizations were recorded during the study period, mostly males (80.5%) and from 20 to 49 years of age (71.2%). The most frequent type of accident involved motorcyclists (42.8%), followed by run-over pedestrians (33.7%). In general, the period from 2000 to 2007 was marked by increasing hospitalization rates from motor vehicle accidents involving all means of transportation, in both sexes, and in most age brackets. The year when the rates stopped increasing (or in some cases began to drop) differed according to the means of transportation. For vehicle occupants and cyclists, the trend in most age brackets turned downward in 2008, but the same did not happen with pedestrians and motorcyclists until 2012. Starting in 2015, the decline stopped in pedestrians, and the rates in cyclists turned upward again in most age brackets. For motorcyclists, the rates turned upward again in men 20 to 59 years of age (7.2% per year, exceeding 140 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2019) and in women 15 to 39 years of age (4.9% per year). The benefits of traffic safety measures implemented thus far in Brazil may have reached their limit, so that the current control and prevention measures need to be revised.

Este estudo avaliou a tendência das taxas de internação por acidentes de trânsito no Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS), de residentes no Município de São Paulo, Brasil, entre 2000 e 2019, segundo sexo, faixa etária e meio de transporte (pedestres, ciclistas, motociclistas e ocupantes de veículo). Foi ajustado um modelo de regressão segmentada com resposta binomial negativa, com pontos de inflexão para acomodar possíveis mudanças de tendência. Foram registradas 189.765 internações durante o período de estudo, a maioria de homens (80,5%) com idade entre 20 e 49 anos (71,2%). O tipo de acidente mais frequente foi com motocicleta (42,8%), seguido dos atropelamentos de pedestres (33,7%). De um modo geral, o período de 2000 a 2007 foi marcado pelo crescimento das taxas de hospitalização por acidentes de trânsito para todos os meios de transporte, em ambos os sexos e na maioria das faixas etárias. O momento em que as taxas pararam de crescer ou que eventualmente passaram a cair foi diferente para os diferentes meios de transporte. Para ocupantes de veículos e ciclistas, a tendência na maioria das faixas etárias inverteu-se para uma de queda em 2008, mas para pedestres e motociclistas, isto só ocorreu em 2012. A partir de 2015, a queda cessou em pedestres e as taxas em ciclistas voltaram a subir, na maioria das faixas etárias. Para motociclistas, as taxas voltaram a crescer em homens de 20 a 59 anos (7,2% ao ano, atingindo valores superiores a 140 por 100 mil habitantes em 2019) e em mulheres, de 15 a 39 anos (4,9% ao ano). É possível que os benefícios das medidas de segurança implementadas até agora tenham atingido seu limite, de modo que as atuais medidas de controle e prevenção devem ser revistas.

Este estudio evaluó la tendencia de las tasas de internamiento por accidentes de tránsito en el Sistema Único de Salud, de residentes en el Municipio de São Paulo, Brasil, entre 2000 y 2019, según sexo, franja de edad y medio de transporte (peatones, ciclistas, motociclistas y ocupantes de vehículo). Fue ajustado a un modelo de regresión segmentada con respuesta binomial negativa, con puntos de inflexión para acomodar posibles cambios de tendencia. Se registraron 189.765 internamientos durante el período de estudio, la mayoría de hombres (80,5%) con edad entre 20 y 49 años (71,2%). El tipo de accidente más frecuente fue con motocicleta (42,8%), seguido de atropellamientos de peatones (33,7%). De modo general, el período de 2000 a 2007 estuvo marcado por el crecimiento de las tasas de hospitalización por accidentes de tránsito para todos los medios de transporte, en ambos sexos, y en la mayoría de las franjas de edad. El momento en el que las tasas pararon de crecer, o que eventualmente pasaron a caer, fue diferente para los diferentes medios de transporte. En el caso de ocupantes de vehículos y ciclistas, la tendencia en la mayoría de las franjas de edad se invirtió hacia una caída en 2008, pero en peatones y motociclistas, esto solo ocurrió en 2012. A partir de 2015, la caída cesó en peatones y las tasas en ciclistas volvieron a subir, en la mayoría de las franjas de edad. Para los motociclistas, las tasas volvieron a crecer en hombres de 20 a 59 años (7,2% al año, alcanzando valores superiores a 140 por 100 mil habitantes en 2019) y en mujeres, de 15 a 39 años (4,9% al año). Es posible que los beneficios de las medidas de seguridad implementadas hasta ahora hayan alcanzado su límite, de modo que las actuales medidas de control y prevención deben ser revisadas.

Effect of social isolation in dengue cases in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil: An analysis during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Studies have shown that human mobility is an important factor in dengue epidemiology. Changes in mobility resulting from COVID-19 pandemic set up a real-life situation to test this hypothesis. Our objective was to evaluate the effect of reduced mobility due to this pandemic in the occurrence of dengue in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. METHOD: It is an ecological study of time series, developed between January and August 2020. We use the number of confirmed dengue cases and residential mobility, on a daily basis, from secondary information sources. Mobility was represented by the daily percentage variation of residential population isolation, obtained from the Google database. We modeled the relationship between dengue occurrence and social distancing by negative binomial regression, adjusted for seasonality. We represent the social distancing dichotomously (isolation versus no isolation) and consider lag for isolation from the dates of occurrence of dengue. RESULTS: The risk of dengue decreased around 9.1% (95% CI: 14.2 to 3.7) in the presence of isolation, considering a delay of 20 days between the degree of isolation and the dengue first symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: We have shown that mobility can play an important role in the epidemiology of dengue and should be considered in surveillance and control activities.

Human leptospirosis in the municipality of São Paulo, SP, Brazil: distribution and trend according to sociodemographic factors, 2007-2016.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to describe the incidence and proportional lethality of human leptospirosis in the municipality of São Paulo, between 2007 and 2016, according to sociodemographic factors and characteristics of the disease, and to assess the temporal trends of incidence, according to age group and region of residence. METHODS: Proportional distributions of leptospirosis cases of residents in the municipality were built and regression models with a Binomial Negative response were adjusted. RESULTS: 2,201 cases of leptospirosis were registered, most of them being males (82%), aged between 20 to 59 years (64.6%), white (39%) or brown (32.8%), residing in the South (27.8%), East (23.8%) and North (18.5%) regions. The overall lethality was 15.1%. The risk was higher in the 20 to 59 age group. There was a downward trend in incidence in all age groups and regions, estimated at 5.6% per year. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the downward trend in incidence, leptospirosis is a serious disease with high lethality, affecting mainly male individuals in the age groups considered economically active and living in the peripheral regions of the municipality.

Effect of social isolation in dengue cases in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil: An analysis during the COVID-19 pandemic

Background Studies have shown that human mobility is an important factor in dengue epidemiology. Changes in mobility resulting from COVID-19 pandemic set up a real-life situation to test this hypothesis. Our objective was to evaluate the effect of reduced mobility due to this pandemic in the occurrence of dengue in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. Method It is an ecological study of time series, developed between January and August 2020. We use the number of confirmed dengue cases and residential mobility, on a daily basis, from secondary information sources. Mobility was represented by the daily percentage variation of residential population isolation, obtained from the Google database. We modeled the relationship between dengue occurrence and social distancing by negative binomial regression, adjusted for seasonality. We represent the social distancing dichotomously (isolation versus no isolation) and consider lag for isolation from the dates of occurrence of dengue. Results The risk of dengue decreased around 9.1% (95% CI: 14.2 to 3.7) in the presence of isolation, considering a delay of 20 days between the degree of isolation and the dengue first symptoms. Conclusions We have shown that mobility can play an important role in the epidemiology of dengue and should be considered in surveillance and control activities.

Tendência temporal das internações por acidentes de trânsito na cidade de São Paulo, Brasil, 2000-2019 / Time trend in hospitalizations from motor vehicle accidents in the city of São Paulo, Brazil, 2000-2019 / Tendencia temporal de los internamientos por accidentes de tráfico en la ciudad de São Paulo, Brasil, 2000-2019

Este estudo avaliou a tendência das taxas de internação por acidentes de trânsito no Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS), de residentes no Município de São Paulo, Brasil, entre 2000 e 2019, segundo sexo, faixa etária e meio de transporte (pedestres, ciclistas, motociclistas e ocupantes de veículo). Foi ajustado um modelo de regressão segmentada com resposta binomial negativa, com pontos de inflexão para acomodar possíveis mudanças de tendência. Foram registradas 189.765 internações durante o período de estudo, a maioria de homens (80,5%) com idade entre 20 e 49 anos (71,2%). O tipo de acidente mais frequente foi com motocicleta (42,8%), seguido dos atropelamentos de pedestres (33,7%). De um modo geral, o período de 2000 a 2007 foi marcado pelo crescimento das taxas de hospitalização por acidentes de trânsito para todos os meios de transporte, em ambos os sexos e na maioria das faixas etárias. O momento em que as taxas pararam de crescer ou que eventualmente passaram a cair foi diferente para os diferentes meios de transporte. Para ocupantes de veículos e ciclistas, a tendência na maioria das faixas etárias inverteu-se para uma de queda em 2008, mas para pedestres e motociclistas, isto só ocorreu em 2012. A partir de 2015, a queda cessou em pedestres e as taxas em ciclistas voltaram a subir, na maioria das faixas etárias. Para motociclistas, as taxas voltaram a crescer em homens de 20 a 59 anos (7,2% ao ano, atingindo valores superiores a 140 por 100 mil habitantes em 2019) e em mulheres, de 15 a 39 anos (4,9% ao ano). É possível que os benefícios das medidas de segurança implementadas até agora tenham atingido seu limite, de modo que as atuais medidas de controle e prevenção devem ser revistas.

This study assessed the hospitalization rates from motor vehicle accidents in the Brazilian Unified National Health System (SUS) in residents of the city of São Paulo, Brazil, from 2000 to 2019, according to sex, age bracket, and means of transportation (pedestrians, cyclists, motorcyclists, and motor vehicle occupants). A segmented regression model with negative binomial response was adjusted with inflection points to accommodate possible changes in trends. 189,765 hospitalizations were recorded during the study period, mostly males (80.5%) and from 20 to 49 years of age (71.2%). The most frequent type of accident involved motorcyclists (42.8%), followed by run-over pedestrians (33.7%). In general, the period from 2000 to 2007 was marked by increasing hospitalization rates from motor vehicle accidents involving all means of transportation, in both sexes, and in most age brackets. The year when the rates stopped increasing (or in some cases began to drop) differed according to the means of transportation. For vehicle occupants and cyclists, the trend in most age brackets turned downward in 2008, but the same did not happen with pedestrians and motorcyclists until 2012. Starting in 2015, the decline stopped in pedestrians, and the rates in cyclists turned upward again in most age brackets. For motorcyclists, the rates turned upward again in men 20 to 59 years of age (7.2% per year, exceeding 140 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2019) and in women 15 to 39 years of age (4.9% per year). The benefits of traffic safety measures implemented thus far in Brazil may have reached their limit, so that the current control and prevention measures need to be revised.

Este estudio evaluó la tendencia de las tasas de internamiento por accidentes de tránsito en el Sistema Único de Salud, de residentes en el Municipio de São Paulo, Brasil, entre 2000 y 2019, según sexo, franja de edad y medio de transporte (peatones, ciclistas, motociclistas y ocupantes de vehículo). Fue ajustado a un modelo de regresión segmentada con respuesta binomial negativa, con puntos de inflexión para acomodar posibles cambios de tendencia. Se registraron 189.765 internamientos durante el período de estudio, la mayoría de hombres (80,5%) con edad entre 20 y 49 años (71,2%). El tipo de accidente más frecuente fue con motocicleta (42,8%), seguido de atropellamientos de peatones (33,7%). De modo general, el período de 2000 a 2007 estuvo marcado por el crecimiento de las tasas de hospitalización por accidentes de tránsito para todos los medios de transporte, en ambos sexos, y en la mayoría de las franjas de edad. El momento en el que las tasas pararon de crecer, o que eventualmente pasaron a caer, fue diferente para los diferentes medios de transporte. En el caso de ocupantes de vehículos y ciclistas, la tendencia en la mayoría de las franjas de edad se invirtió hacia una caída en 2008, pero en peatones y motociclistas, esto solo ocurrió en 2012. A partir de 2015, la caída cesó en peatones y las tasas en ciclistas volvieron a subir, en la mayoría de las franjas de edad. Para los motociclistas, las tasas volvieron a crecer en hombres de 20 a 59 años (7,2% al año, alcanzando valores superiores a 140 por 100 mil habitantes en 2019) y en mujeres, de 15 a 39 años (4,9% al año). Es posible que los beneficios de las medidas de seguridad implementadas hasta ahora hayan alcanzado su límite, de modo que las actuales medidas de control y prevención deben ser revisadas.

Spatial analysis and factors associated with leptospirosis in Santa Catarina, Brazil, 2001-2015.

INTRODUCTION: Leptospirosis is an endemic disease in Brazil that can become an epidemic during the rainy season resulting from floods in areas susceptible to natural disasters. These areas are widespread in Santa Catarina, particularly in the coastal region. Therefore, the objective of this study was to identify environmental, climatic, and demographic factors associated with the incidence of leptospirosis in the municipalities of Santa Catarina from 2001 to 2015, taking into account possible spatial dependence. METHODS: This was an ecological study aggregated by municipality. To evaluate the association between the incidence of leptospirosis and the factors under study (temperature, altitude, occurrence of natural disasters, etc.) while taking into account spatial dependence, linear regression models and models with global spatial error were used. RESULTS: Lower altitudes, higher temperatures, and areas of natural disaster risk in the municipality contributed the most to explaining the variability in the incidence rate. After taking spatial dependence into account, only the minimum altitude variable remained significant. The regions of lower altitude, where the highest rates of leptospirosis were recorded, corresponded to the eastern portion of the state near the coastal region, where floods, urban floods, and overflows are common occurrences. No associations were found concerning demographic factors. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of leptospirosis in Santa Catarina was associated with environmental factors, particularly low altitude, even when considering the spatial dependence structure present in the data. The spatial error model allowed for adequate modeling of spatial autocorrelation.

The emerging risk of oropharyngeal and oral cavity cancer in HPV-related subsites in young people in Brazil.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is responsible for the rise in the incidence of cancer in the oropharynx, tonsils, and base of the tongue (i.e., HPV-related subsites). HPV triggered the changes in the epidemiology of oropharyngeal and oral cavity cancer (OPC/OCC) in Asia, Europe, North America, and Oceania. Hence, the incidence of cancer in HPV-related subsites is augmenting, while that in other HPV-unrelated subsites is decreasing. In South America, although the incidence of HPV-positive tumors has gradually increased, there is an atypically low prevalence of HPV in people with OPC/OCC. To clarify whether this dramatic shift in incidence trends also occurred in this population, we estimated the burden of HPV on the incidence trends of OPCs/OCCs in São Paulo city in Brazil. In this population-based study, we categorized OPCs/OCCs by HPV-related and HPV-unrelated subsites. We used Poisson regression to assess the age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) stratified by sex and age groups, as well as to examine the age-period-cohort effects. There were 15,391 cases of OPCs/OCCs diagnosed in HPV-related (n = 5,898; 38.3%) and HPV-unrelated (n = 9,493; 61.7%) subsites. Overall, the ASRs decreased for most subsites, for both sexes and for all age groups, except for HPV-related OPC/OCC in young males and females, which increased by 3.8% and 8.6% per year, respectively. In the birth-cohort-effect analysis, we identified an increasing risk for HPV-related OPC/OCC in both sexes in recent birth cohorts; however, this risk was sharply decreased in HPV-unrelated subsites. Our data demonstrate an emerging risk for HPV-related OPC/OCC in young people, which supports prophylactic HPV vaccination in this group.

Leptospirosis and its spatial and temporal relations with natural disasters in six municipalities of Santa Catarina, Brazil, from 2000 to 2016.

Leptospirosis is a serious bacterial infection that occurs worldwide, with fatality rate of up to 40% in the most severe cases. The number of cases peaks during the rainy season and may reach epidemic proportions in the event of flooding. It is possible that people living in areas affected by natural disasters are at greater risk of contracting the disease. The aim of this study was to identify clusters of relatively higher risk for leptospirosis occurrence, both in space and time, in six municipalities of Santa Catarina, Brazil, which had the highest incidence of the disease between 2000 and 2016, and to evaluate if these clusters coincide with the occurrence of natural disasters. The cases were geocoded with the geographic coordinates of patients' home addresses, and the analysis was performed using SaTScan software. The areas mapped as being at risk for hydrological and mass movements were compared with the locations of detected leptospirosis clusters. The disease was more common in men and in the age group from 15 to 69 years. In the scan statistics performed, only space-time showed significant results. Clusters were detected in all municipalities in 2008, when natural disasters preceded by heavy rainfall occurred. One of the municipalities also had clusters in 2011. In these clusters, most of the cases lived in urban areas and areas at risk for experiencing natural disasters. The interaction between time (time of disaster occurrence) and space (areas at risk of experiencing natural disasters) were the determining factors affecting cluster formation.

Spatial analysis and factors associated with leptospirosis in Santa Catarina, Brazil, 2001-2015

Abstract INTRODUCTION: Leptospirosis is an endemic disease in Brazil that can become an epidemic during the rainy season resulting from floods in areas susceptible to natural disasters. These areas are widespread in Santa Catarina, particularly in the coastal region. Therefore, the objective of this study was to identify environmental, climatic, and demographic factors associated with the incidence of leptospirosis in the municipalities of Santa Catarina from 2001 to 2015, taking into account possible spatial dependence. METHODS: This was an ecological study aggregated by municipality. To evaluate the association between the incidence of leptospirosis and the factors under study (temperature, altitude, occurrence of natural disasters, etc.) while taking into account spatial dependence, linear regression models and models with global spatial error were used. RESULTS: Lower altitudes, higher temperatures, and areas of natural disaster risk in the municipality contributed the most to explaining the variability in the incidence rate. After taking spatial dependence into account, only the minimum altitude variable remained significant. The regions of lower altitude, where the highest rates of leptospirosis were recorded, corresponded to the eastern portion of the state near the coastal region, where floods, urban floods, and overflows are common occurrences. No associations were found concerning demographic factors. CONCLUSIONS The incidence of leptospirosis in Santa Catarina was associated with environmental factors, particularly low altitude, even when considering the spatial dependence structure present in the data. The spatial error model allowed for adequate modeling of spatial autocorrelation.

Lung Cancer Mortality Trends in a Brazilian City with a Long History of Asbestos Consumption.

There are scarce epidemiological studies on lung cancer mortality in areas exposed to asbestos in developing countries. We compared the rates and trends in mortality from lung cancer between 1980 and 2016 in a municipality that made extensive use of asbestos, Osasco, with rates from a referent municipality with lower asbestos exposure and with the rates for the State of São Paulo. We retrieved death records for cases of lung cancer (ICD-9 C162) (ICD-10 C33 C34) from 1980 to 2016 in adults aged 60 years and older. The join point regression and age-period-cohort models were fitted to the data. Among men, there was an increasing trend in lung cancer mortality in Osasco of 0.7% (CI: 0.1; 1.3) in contrast to a mean annual decrease for Sorocaba of -1.5% (CI: -2.4; -0.6) and a stable average trend for São Paulo of -0.1 (IC: -0.3; 0.1). Similar increasing trends were seen in women. The age-period-cohort model showed an increase in the risk of death from 1996 in Osasco and a reduction for Sorocaba and São Paulo State during the same period. Our results point to a need for a special monitoring regarding lung cancer incidence and mortality in areas with higher asbestos exposure.

Efeitos da poluição atmosférica na frequência de atendimentos por hipertensão arterial em unidade de emergência na cidade de São Paulo / The effects of the air pollution on the frequency of services on hypertensive patients at the emergency unit in the city of São Paulo

Objetivo: O objetivo do trabalho foi analisar a associação entre o número de atendimentos por doença hipertensiva em unidade de emergência e as concentrações de poluentes atmosféricos na cidade de São Paulo. Métodos: O grupo estudado foi de pacientes hipertensos (CID 110) que no período entre fevereiro de 2001 a dezembro de 2003 procuraram o serviço de Pronto Socorro do Hospital São Paulo com complicação hipertensiva (elevação da pressão arterial e suas complicações). Todos os pacientes analisados eram procedentes da cidade de São Paulo. Os dados de polui­ção atmosférica foram tomados da CETESB (Companhia de Tecnologia de Saneamento Ambiental) em bases diárias para todo período de estudo. Resultados: A análise dos dados evidenciou que as eleva­ções nas concentrações atmosféricas de dióxido de nitrogênio (N02), monóxido de carbono (CO) e dióxido de enxofre (S02) se relacionam com maior número de atendimentos de pacientes portadores de hipertensão arterial, na unidade de emergência do Hospital São Paulo. O maior efeito sobre a elevação da pressão arterial se deu em momentos diferentes após a exposição para cada um dos poluentes aqui citados. Assim, para o S02 pôde-­se observar repercussão importante até cinco dias após a sua maior concentração atmosférica, enquanto para o CO e o N02 isso se deu com sete e dois dias, respectivamente. Conclusão: Pode-se concluir, então, que existe uma rela­ção importante entre maior concentração de poluentes atmos­féricos e maior número de atendimento de pacientes hipertensos em unidades de pronto atendimento.

Total plasmatic homocysteine and von Willebrand factor in experimental diabetes mellitus.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the plasma homocysteine and von Willebrand factor levels as markers of endothelial dysfunction in rats with diabetes mellitus induced by streptozotocin. METHODS: Thirty-five adult male rats (Rattus norvegicus albinus) (weight between 180-200 g) were randomized into three groups: control group (n=10), which received no drugs or vehicles; sham group (n=10), which received streptozotocin solution; and diabetic group (n=15), which received streptozotocin. Eight weeks after diabetes mellitus induction, the animals were weighed and anesthesized; blood samples were collected from abdominal aorta for plasma total homocysteine, von Willebrand factor and glucose levels. RESULTS: The experimental model was reproducible in 100% of animals. The mean plasma homocysteine levels were: 7.9 micromol/l (control), 8.6 micromol/l (sham) and 6.1 micromol/l (diabetic), with difference among the groups (p<0.01). Multiple comparison analysis among the groups showed that values in the diabetic group were lower than in the sham group (p<0.01). The mean von Willebrand factor values were 0.15 U/l (control), 0.16 U/l (sham) and 0.18 U/l (diabetic), with difference among the groups (p=0.03). The mean value was higher in the diabetic group than in the control group (p<0.05). Correlation between homocysteine and von Willebrand factor was not observed in the diabetic group. CONCLUSION: Reduced homocysteine levels and increased von Willebrand factor levels were observed in diabetes mellitus induced by streptozotocin; nevertheless, there were no correlations between them and with final glucose levels.

Homocisteína plasmática total e fator von Willebrand no diabete melito experimental / Total plasmatic homocysteine and von Willebrand factor in experimental diabetes mellitus

OBJETIVOS: Determinar os valores plasmáticos de homocisteína e fator von Willebrand, como marcador de disfunção endotelial, em ratos com diabete melito induzido por estreptozotocina. MÉTODOS: Trinta e cinco ratos (rattus norvegicus albinus), machos, adultos (180-200 g), randomizados em três grupos: controle (n=10) não receberam agente ou veículo; sham (n=10) receberam solução veículo da estreptozotocina; e diabético (n=15) receberam estreptozotocina. Após oito semanas de indução do diabete melito, os animais foram pesados, anestesiados e tiveram sangue colhido da aorta abdominal para determinação dos valores de homocisteína plasmática total, fator von Willebrand e glicemia. RESULTADOS: O modelo experimental foi reprodutível em 100 por cento dos animais. A média das concentrações plasmáticas de homocisteína foi: 7,9 æmol/l (controle); 8,6 æmol/l (sham) e 6,1 æmol/l (diabético), com diferença entre os grupos (p<0,01). Pelo método de comparações múltiplas entre os grupos, observou-se que os valores no grupo diabético foram menores que no sham (p<0,01). A média dos valores do fator von Willebrand foi 0,15 U/l (controle), 0,16 U/l (sham) e 0,18 U/l (diabético), com diferença entre os grupos (p=0,03). A média dos seus valores no grupo diabético foi maior que no grupo controle (p<0,05). No grupo diabético não houve correlação entre homocisteína e fator von Willebrand. CONCLUSÃO: No diabete melito induzido por estreptozotocina constataram-se valores reduzidos de homocisteína e elevados de fator von Willebrand, sem, contudo, haver correlações entre si e com níveis de glicemia final.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the plasma homocysteine and von Willebrand factor levels as markers of endothelial dysfunction in rats with diabetes mellitus induced by streptozotocin. METHODS: Thirty-five adult male rats (Rattus norvegicus albinus) (weight between 180-200g) were randomized into three groups: control group (n=10), which received no drugs or vehicles; sham group (n=10), which received streptozotocin solution; and diabetic group (n=15), which received streptozotocin. Eight weeks after diabetes mellitus induction, the animals were weighed and anesthesized; blood samples were collected from abdominal aorta for plasma total homocysteine, von Willebrand factor and glucose levels. RESULTS: The experimental model was reproducible in 100 percent of animals. The mean plasma homocysteine levels were: 7.9 æmol/l (control), 8.6æmol/l (sham) and 6.1æmol/l (diabetic), with difference among the groups (p<0.01). Multiple comparison analysis among the groups showed that values in the diabetic group were lower than in the sham group (p<0.01). The mean von Willebrand factor values were 0.15 U/l (control), 0.16U/l (sham) and 0.18 U/l (diabetic), with difference among the groups (p=0.03). The mean value was higher in the diabetic group than in the control group (p<0.05). Correlation between homocysteine and von Willebrand factor was not observed in the diabetic group. CONCLUSION: Reduced homocysteine levels and increased von Willebrand factor levels were observed in diabetes mellitus induced by streptozotocin; nevertheless, there were no correlations between them and with final glucose levels.

Análise descritiva e de tendência de acidentes de transporte terrestre para políticas sociais no Brasil / Descriptive and trend analyses of land transport accidents for public policies in Brazil

Este artigo analisou a mortalidade por acidentes de transporte terrestre no Brasil em 2003 e sua tendência de 1980 a 2003. Utilizaram-se os óbitos por acidente de transporte terrestre captados pelo Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade (SIM). Para a análise de tendência, adotaram-se taxas padronizadas, tendo, como referência, a população brasileira no ano 2000. Houve 33.182 óbitos em 2003 – 19 óbitos por 100 mil habitantes. Atropelamentos e acidentes com motocicleta cresceram no período estudado, com declínio dos primeiros a partir de 1998 e crescimento dos últimos, principalmente, a partir de 1995. Houve diferencial no risco de mortalidade segundo raça/cor e condição social – escolaridade. Indivíduos pretos associaram-se a pior condição social e mortes por atropelamento, enquanto brancos, a melhor condição social e mortes como ocupantes de veículo. Os resultados reforçam a importância da vigilância de acidentes de transporte no apoio a políticas de promoção da saúde e prevenção desses eventos...

Avaliação da associação entre mortalidade e poluição atmosférica na cidade de São Paulo com base em dados de autopsia: aspectos epidemiológicos e metodologia estatística / Evaluation of the association between mortality and air pollution in the city of São Paulo based on autopsy data: epidemiological aspects and statistical methodology

Avaliamos a associação entre poluição atmosférica e mortalidade em São Paulo entre 1996 e 1999, utilizando informações obtidas através das autópsias realizadas no Serviço de Verificação de Óbitos da Capital vinculado à Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo. Modelos aditivos generalizados com defasagens distribuídas polinomiais foram ajustados. Observou-se uma associação positiva entre os níveis de CO e SO2 e a mortalidade por causas respiratórias em crianças e idosos, respectivamente / We evaluated the association between air pollution and mortality in São Paulo for 1996-1999 (daily data), using information provided by the autopsies carried out in the Post-Mortem Service of the University of Sao Paulo School of Medicine. Generalized additive distributed lag models were adjusted, controlled for seasonality and meteorological conditions. The levels of CO and SO2 were positively associated with mortality due to respiratory causes for children and elderly, respectively...

Modelos MLG e MAG para análise da associaçäo entre poluiçäo atmosférica e marcadores de morbi-mortalidade: uma introduçäo baseada em dados da cidade de Säo Paulo / GLM and GAM model for analyzing the association between atmospheric pollution and morbidity-mortality markers: an introduction based on data from the city Säo Paulo, Brazil

Descreve e compara duas classes de modelos, os Modelos Lineares Generalizados (MLG) e os Modelos Aditivos Generalizados (MAG), que podem ser utilizadas para avaliar a associaçäo entre poluiçäo atmosférica e marcadores de morbi-mortalidade. Como exemplo de aplicaçäo é avaliada a associaçäo entre mortalidade em idosos e poluiçäo atmosférica na cidade de Säo Paulo no período de 1994 a 1997. As duas classes de modelos produziram resultados coerentes, mas os modelos estatisticamente mais sofisticados tiveram mais poder para detectar efeitos significantes. Foram observados associaçöes entre mortalidade e os níveis de CO, SO2 e, em menor escala, PM10. As associaçöes observadas foram dose-dependente e evidentes após um curto período de exposiçäo